Prediction is a risky business, yet every year, prominent public figures are prepared to put their credibility on the line by forecasting the future. As British prime minister Harold Macmillan said, the most difficult thing about his job was events.

Who could have predicted the wild turns the US election took, the collapse of Europe’s two strongest governments in France and Germany, or the rapid fall of the half-century-old Assad regime in Syria? Still, as 2024 began a year ago, plenty of vaunted institutions and commentators recorded for posterity their predictions for a truly memorable 12 months. We look back at some of them to see how they actually turned out.

President Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump in the November election, and Vice President Kamala Harris will play a huge role.

—An op-ed in The Hill, January 1, 2024

What happened:

Biden didn’t even run, dropping out of the race in July after a disastrous debate that exposed his cognitive decline. Kamala Harris was coronated as the nominee, but she was soundly trounced by a resurgent Trump, who won the Electoral College, popular vote, and both houses of Congress.

What it means:

The commentariat indulged in wishful thinking when it came to the outcome of the US election, right up until the results came in — though to be fair, Biden and the Democrats started out 2024 in a relatively strong position. Few people could have foreseen the jaw-dropping debate that forced Biden to exit and be replaced with the underwhelming, over-hyped Harris.

Biden won’t pardon his son Hunter.

—Former CNN journalist John Harwood

What happened:

In early December, the outgoing US president issued a presidential pardon for his son Hunter, who’s embroiled in criminal suits over his tax affairs, as well as a gun case. Biden and his aides had repeatedly insisted he wouldn’t use his privileged position to let his son off the hook.

What it means:

Biden’s screeching U-turn is a humiliation for the progressive movement at large, which constantly contrasted its own perceived ethical standards with Trump’s unabashed nepotism and self-indulgence. It gives Trump far more leeway in his second term; he can rebut any moral protest from the Democrats by just pointing them toward Biden’s self-serving hypocrisy.

“Socio-politically, [Argentinian president Javier] Milei is a risk, with his blunt opinions on [matters such as] abortion and climate change putting Argentina at an increased risk of civil dissent.”

—Inquire Publication, a university magazine

What happened:

Milei has implemented radical reforms that have helped tame his country’s hyperinflation and soaring debt. The measures have faced some opposition, but his approval ratings are climbing, and now stand at 54%, the highest during his tenure. The public is hardly rioting in the streets over social issues.

What it means:

So far, Milei’s “chainsaw economics,” a ruthless axing of bureaucracy and regulation, appear to be working. Inflation is down and economic confidence has risen throughout the year. As evidenced in elections all over the world in 2024, it was the economy, stupid.

France’s far-right National Rally (RN) is projected to win a snap election without an absolute majority.

—Reuters

What happened:

In a shock defeat, Marine Le Pen’s RN party slumped to third place, behind a left-wing alliance and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp.

What it means:

Though National Rally dominated in the polls and had a good result at the European Parliament elections in May, the centrist and left-wing coalitions effectively united, through pacts in individual seats, to block RN candidates coming through the middle. As of the end of 2024, though, Macron is on his fifth prime minister of the year, and his government is effectively paralyzed.

Sustainability was high on the corporate agenda in 2023, and will continue to be in 2024.

—London Business School

What happened:

Amid a backlash from voters, governments backtracked on green commitments, and businesses followed suit, ceasing to trumpet their green credentials for fear of turning off consumers. Notable examples include tractor supply company John Deere, Jack Daniels, Black and Decker, and the world’s largest company by revenue, Walmart.

What it means:

As long as consumers struggle with the cost of living and rebel against being preached at by an overpaid managerial class, businesses will continue to protect their bottom lines above all else. Expect scientists’ and NGOs’ warnings to go unheeded by risk-averse businesses who know their customers care more about their pockets than pronouncements about the planet.

Germany’s economy will grow by 0.3% in 2024.

—The German government

What happened:

The German economy is projected to have contracted by 0.2%, according to its central bank.

What it means:

Germany’s economy underperformed even the most modest of expectations for the former engine of Europe, driven by a sharp decline in auto exports. The industry blames a drop in Chinese demand, coupled with onerous environmental regulations and targets. The flagging economy is Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s biggest headache as he leads his party into snap elections in February 2025, which he’s expected to lose badly.

Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is toast. He was in trouble before October 7; he’s in more trouble now.

—Toronto Sun

What happened:

A series of military successes and high-profile assassinations throughout the year have boosted Bibi’s ratings. A mid-December poll showed the Likud netting the largest number of seats if an election were held today.

What it means:

Bibi’s problems are far from over. He faces legal troubles, internal spats over religious issues and judicial reform, and the war in Gaza grinds on, with an ever-dwindling number of surviving hostages still in captivity. But the past year has proven that reports of Netanyahu’s political demise are, once again, greatly exaggerated.

“Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, is secure in his position, and we do not expect any regime change in 2024–28.”

—The Economist

What happened:

Assad’s tyrannical regime fell in less than two weeks. The army did little to stop a rebel surge and willingly abandoned their weapons and uniforms once Assad had fled to Moscow.

What it means:

In hindsight, there’s much talk of the hollowing out of Russian and Iranian military capabilities, which left Assad to face the rebels alone. But for some reason, no one was pointing to these factors until the coup began in late November. The world is still coming to terms with Assad’s dizzying fall, and waiting to see how the new government behaves, but the astonishing events have provided much humble pie for foreign policy experts, none of whom saw it coming.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1943)

The post How Predictions for 2024 Panned Out   first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

Public curiosity over the exponential rise in unexplained drone sightings has been overtaken by anger at the federal government’s disinterest in explaining the phenomenon and its seeming discrediting of hundreds of eyewitness accounts.

New Jersey held the highest number of credible sightings, including several near two military bases and President-elect Donald Trump’s Bedminster home.

Yet even as drones with wingspans up to eight feet wide were sighted by law enforcement officials, Washington brushed them off, saying they had no evidence of “nefarious” activity.

Sheriff Michael Mastronardy of Ocean County, New Jersey (which includes the Lakewood area), received reports from officers under his command about drones and sent some of his department’s own unmanned aircraft to track them. But as they approached, the drones went dark and could no longer be followed.

In one highly publicized incident, a police officer on Ocean County’s Long Beach Island spotted some 50 drones flying in from over the water.

Sheriff Mastronardy came to the scene and reported the sighting to the FBI, who joined him on Long Beach Island and dispatched a Coast Guard boat. Crew members of that boat later told the sheriff that it had been followed by a dozen or so large drones.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby told media the aircraft the Coast Guard had observed were actually planes headed for Kennedy Airport.

“You can’t tell us we’re seeing things when we give you documentation,” Sheriff Mastronardy said. “ ’Everything’s okay, but we don’t know what it is.’ What the heck is that supposed to mean?”

Federal officials dismissed concern by citing the more than one million licensed drones in the county, and pointing out that flying drones is legal in most areas. Officials claimed the recent frenzy was merely recognition of an ongoing reality.

Daniel Gerstein, a former undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) during the Obama administration and currently a researcher at the Rand think tank, agreed that drone sightings were being reported out of context.

“It’s probably a mix of things going on — small, unmanned aircraft, small manned aircraft being mistaken for drones, and a lot of misinformation being amplified on social media,” he said.

Theories on what was behind them ranged from reconnaissance by a foreign adversary to alien visitors. Government inaction reminded many of the Chinese observation ballon that hovered over the United States for weeks last year.

Sherriff Mastronardy’s best guess was that the drones were the result of a project by the government itself, compounding frustration over the federal response.

“All they have to do is say, ‘Yes, we’re doing a study,’ and that would kill speculation,” he said. “When you’re not straight with people, they make up their own information.”

A silver lining many see in the drone mystery is a wake-up call that the proliferation of unmanned aircraft is outpacing existing laws, and that state and local agencies need more authority to deal with them.

Yet as government officials kept up lines like DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’s telling CNN, “We haven’t seen anything unusual,” more people felt federal officials remained irritatingly deaf to the institutional distrust they continued to feed.

“Government hasn’t been forthcoming or responsive,” said Dr. Gerstein. “That just creates a vacuum that gets filled with a lot of nonsense.”

Musk Flexes His Muscles

Political observers are used to the drama of funding showdowns in which Congress bickers down to zero hour, usually emerging with a late-night compromise package containing whopping sums for pet projects. Every few years a shutdown actually occurs, leaving a stench on the majority party.

House Speaker Mike Johnson spent weeks ironing out a bipartisan compromise only for it to be sunk by tech mogul turned co-head of the unofficial Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk.

“Stop the steal of your tax dollars!” he wrote. Another post read, “Unless @DOGE ends the careers of deceitful, pork-barrel politicians, the waste and corruption will never stop.”

The bill faced uncertain prospects, with many Republicans hesitant to back another unwieldy spending package. Mr. Musk’s calls were seconded by President-elect Donald Trump, and the bill was torpedoed.

Within 24 hours, House Republicans had a pared-down bill ready to go, complete with Mr. Trump’s approval. The bill must still be passed by the Senate, but many were left thinking Mr. Musk’s takedown was just untraditional political orchestration.

Not Your Grandfather’s Strike

The Teamsters Union initiated what it claimed was the largest strike against Amazon, ever with 10,000 drivers joining picket lines.

“If your package is delayed during the holidays, you can blame Amazon’s insatiable greed,” said Teamsters general president Sean O’Brien in a statement.

A company spokeswoman said the strike would not affect fulfillment services, and that very few drivers are represented by the Teamsters.

Amazon employees have complained of poor wages and conditions for years. Recently, Amazon announced it would invest $2 billion into driver salaries, which was expected to translate into a 7% pay raise. Yet a contract was never negotiated.

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wrote a social post supporting the strike and castigating Amazon’s owner, Jeff Bezos, for his labor practices and for recently dining with President-elect Donald Trump.

Despite the Vermont socialist’s packaging, the strike is not like the labor disputes of yore that neatly divided the political left and right.

Mr. O’Brien, the Teamsters’ leader, became an ally of President-elect Donald Trump and addressed this year’s Republican Convention.

Further blurring the lines, and giving Mr. Trump a foot in opposing courts, Amazon owner Mr. Bezos, once seen as emblematic of Silicon Valley’s progressive power base, infuriated many on the left by blocking the Washington Post, which he owns, from endorsing a presidential candidate.

100,000

The discovery of several mass graves around Damascus left little doubt that Bashar al-Assad’s tyrannical regime tortured and murdered over 100,000 people.

“We really haven’t seen anything quite like this since the Nazis,” Stephan Rapp, an international prosecutor, told Reuters. “We are talking about a system of state terror that became a machinery of death.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1042)

The post It’s a Bird, It’s a Plane… It’s a Drone      first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

Health Warning

The murder of Brian Thompson, CEO of health insurance giant UnitedHealthcare, by 26-year-old Luigi Mangione, shocked America. But perhaps more disturbing than the crime itself was the reaction on the left, which ranged from outright glee to sympathy with the killer’s sentiments: that private health insurers are extorting the poor, profiting from illness, and slow to pay out claims.

Unlike most other developed economies, the US doesn’t have any form of universal health care. While other countries subsidize health care either partially or completely, the US only has limited programs for the very poor and elderly; everyone else must pay themselves. That means obtaining health insurance to avoid being bankrupted by the eye-wateringly expensive American health care system.

Nothing justifies cold-blooded murder. But with renewed focus on America’s health care system, here is a snapshot of this complex and controversial structure, which tops the charts on cost, but results in only the 42nd-highest life expectancy.

Private Insurance

Employment-based – insurance coverage provided by an employer or union

Direct purchase – insurance purchased directly by the consumer from the provider or health care marketplace

Public Insurance

Medicare – federal program that helps pay health care costs for those aged 65+, or people with long-term disabilities

Medicaid – government-provided insurance coverage for those on low incomes

Paying Your Share

Even private insurance plans can entail additional costs:

Deductibles – the amount the claimant must pay before insurance kicks in and covers the rest

Copayments – a fixed payment (ranging on average from $26 to $44) for services like doctors’ visits

Coinsurance – a percentage of the cost of the service provided

Protective Ceiling

There is a federally mandated limit to the out-of-pocket costs insured consumers have to pay in deductibles, copayments, and coinsurance. Under Obamacare, this is $9,450 for individuals and $18,900 for family plans.

In numbers (2023)

Insured Americans

92%

Uninsured Americans

8%

Types of coverage

Employment-based

65.4%

Direct-purchase

10.2%

Medicare

18.9%

Medicaid

18.9%

Other

7.6%

The Figures

$8,435

Average yearly premium for an individual in 2023, 83% paid by employer and 17% paid by employee contributions

$23,968

Average yearly premium for family coverage in 2023, 71% paid by employer and 29% paid by employee contributions

$4.8 trillion

Total US health care spending in 2023

$576.1 billion – Total spending on Medicaid in 2023

$15,074

Estimated health care spending per person in 2024

Peace Talks

When Donald Trump first talked about a negotiated settlement to end the war in Ukraine, rather than pumping endless billions into a bloody war of attrition, Western allies howled about the evil of forcing Ukraine into surrendering its sovereign territory, thus rewarding Putin’s illegal invasion.

But nearly three years on, with the cash — and their electorates’ patience running out — European leaders are coming around to the new reality, and the conversation is turning inexorably to peace talks. After Trump met Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris, France’s Emmanuel Macron suggested a European peacekeeping force, though Poland’s Donald Tusk dismissed the idea of a continent-wide deployment. Even Britain’s Keir Starmer, whose country has been Ukraine’s staunchest European ally, is talking about putting Ukraine in the strongest position for peace talks.

For all the talk of Trump-proofing European defense, without American largesse, European leaders must follow where Trump goes.

Big Tech Bust-Up

Big Tech has always drawn antagonism from Washington, whether for anti-competitive practices, tax avoidance, or perceived political bias, but some of Trump’s recent appointments signal a further ramping up of hostilities. His picks for the Federal Trade Commission and Federal Communications Commission, Andrew Ferguson and Brendan Carr, have both targeted Big Tech for its censorship of free speech. Their political arguments are in contrast to the Biden administration’s more technocratic approach, which focused on anti-competitive practices.

The Republicans are attracting a new cadre of tech bros — the plucky Little Tech founders, some of whom switched allegiances in 2024. Software engineer, serial inventor, and venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, and his cofounder Ben Horowitz, endorsed Trump, breaking with their past support of Democratic candidates. VP-elect J.D. Vance invested in multiple start-ups before entering politics, and has made no secret of his belief that Big Tech should be broken up and slapped with higher corporate taxes. Has Big Tech’s day of reckoning finally arrived?

15%

The total rise in revenue last year for Israel’s three largest defense companies. It’s unsurprising, given how the country’s been consumed by war on multiple fronts. This places Israel 4th in global rankings for defense industry growth in 2023.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1041)

The post Health Warning first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

Since his Reform UK party won an unprecedented five seats in the July election, charismatic populist Nigel Farage’s fortunes have only improved. Having played a key role in splitting the right-wing vote, which cost the Conservatives up to 80 seats at the ballot box and handed Labour an extra 144 seats, Reform is now turning its sights on the party they helped elect.

Labour, originally jubilant at Reform’s resurgence, which was the decisive factor in their victory, is increasingly alarmed at the inroads Farage is making, this time at their expense. Ahead of local elections in May 2025, and parliamentary elections in devolved nations in 2026, Reform is predicted to make big gains. The party membership has recently passed the 100,000 mark, they’ve bagged some high-profile Conservative defections, and their momentum seems unstoppable. We take a look at their current position and ask if they can really redraw a century-old political map.

A Dying Duopoly?

Not for over a century in British politics has the Conservative-Labour duopoly been challenged like this. The first-past-the-post electoral system is ruthless at squeezing out fringe parties, but the populist right has built up a sufficient following in concentrated areas to make them a credible threat to Labour. In 89 Labour-won seats, Reform is in second place. Nationally, Reform polls at 20% on average, trailing the two dominant parties by only single digits.

Labour’s start in government has seen their poll lead evaporate and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings fall off a cliff. Swept into government by an electorate desperate to boot out the Conservatives, they’re now perceived to be a resounding disappointment, and a quickly disillusioned public is looking elsewhere. The much-diminished, still-soul-searching Conservatives have yet to offer a coherent alternative to Labour, leaving the field open for a challenger.

A Welsh Wave?

Labour has dominated the voting in Wales since 1999, but years of domestic incompetence are tempting voters to Reform. The poorest nation in the UK has seen declining public service and educational standards, despite record spending.

Farage’s outfit is eyeing the Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections in 2026 as a huge political opportunity. The Senedd is moving to a European-style proportional representation system, creating a uniquely favorable position for a fringe party like Reform. A recent poll had Reform tied in second place with Labour on 23%; a mighty fall for the ruling party, which once clocked 50% support.

Scottish Surge

Scotland has been dominated by the center-left since 1999 — first Labour, then the pro-independence Scottish National Party. In recent months, it looked like the SNP were toast, having been thoroughly trounced by Labour in the general election, but the Labour government’s woes are harming the party in Scotland, and polling indicates that Scottish Labour’s lead has vanished.

Reform are not expecting to win big in Scottish parliamentary elections in 2026, but with a partially proportional representational system, they’re confident of some gains. Scottish polling expert Sir John Curtice recently predicted they could take 8 to 12 of the 129 seats up for grabs.

Border Disorder

Perhaps the biggest boost to Reform has been recently published legal migration figures, which were revised upward after the initial figures were found to be missing data. For the Conservatives, who had consistently promised to reduce migration, they were damning indeed — 906,000 in the year to June 2023, though they fell to 728,000 by 2024 as a result of visa changes implemented by the Sunak administration.

Labour, who in opposition fought against every attempt to control migration, seized on the figures as evidence of their predecessors’ incompetence and disregard for voters’ wishes, but they have yet to offer a concrete plan to reduce legal migration, let alone deal with the tens of thousands arriving illegally by boat to England’s south coast. Immigration consistently ranks in the top three concerns of all voters, and Reform have ample evidence that none of the main parties are either willing or able to tackle this thorny issue.

Defection Watch?

A pair of ambiguous interviews, in which New York mayor Eric Adams did not rule out a switch to the Republicans and said he would fight for American values, whichever party he was in, has set off feverish speculation that the embattled Democrat may defect to the GOP, of which he was a member from 1995 to 2002.

Adams has been at odds with the Biden administration over immigration, and is set to meet Trump’s border czar Thomas Homan to discuss deportation of illegal immigrants from New York. Unlike most of his Democratic colleagues, Adams has been careful not to criticize Trump, and has spoken approvingly of Elon Musk’s appointment as efficiency czar.

Local Democrats are incensed at what they perceive as Adams’s efforts to wangle a pardon from Trump for the criminal bribery case in which he’s embroiled. Trump has previously expressed sympathy with Adams for what he sees as political “lawfare,” like the president-elect’s own legal woes. An Adams defection to the GOP would be a prize indeed. Watch this space to see whether Trump welcomes another high-profile convert to the MAGA fold.

Romanian Ruh-Roh

When pro-Russia, anti-EU independent Calin Georgescu finished first in Romania’s initial round of presidential elections on November 24, nobody saw it coming. Polls placed him fifth or sixth. Suspicions immediately fell on Russian interference; it would be in Moscow’s interest to have the anti-Western, pro-Putin populist in charge of one of Eastern Europe’s key power players.

The runoff contest was set for Sunday, December 8, but on Friday, Romania’s constitutional court canceled them, ruling that the first round had to be rerun. They cited declassified documents from Romanian intelligence, which revealed a concerted Russian effort to spread propaganda on social media and boost Georgescu’s profile with 25,000 fake supportive TikTok accounts. There were also allegations of undeclared foreign donations and campaigning during periods when it was prohibited.

Georgescu claims he’s been the victim of an establishment attempt to overturn democracy, and even his runoff rival Elena Lasconi denounced the decision. Georgescu’s vowed to stand again, though the date for the rerun has yet to be announced. In the pan-European battle between East and West, this election will be critical.

High on AI

The S&P is set to end 2024 up 27% annually, on top of a 24% surge in 2023, fueled largely by massive gains in AI stocks like Nvidia and server-manufacturer Super Micro Computer. The stock market platform hasn’t had such bullish runs since the dot-com boom at the turn of the millennium. Will the AI hype also evaporate?

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1040)

The post The Farage Barrage    first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

Calm after the Storm?

At press time, a potential cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah was taking shape. Yossi Kuperwasser, a career military officer who once led the research division of the IDF’s Military Intelligence and served as director general of the Ministry of Strategic Affairs, and now a senior manager at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, shared his insights with Mishpacha.

Military Objective

The Litani River boundary is within reach, but Israel’s priority is to secure the strategic high ground overlooking its northern communities.

“We are trying to impose the heaviest cost on Hezbollah to push them toward accepting a new arrangement for Lebanon’s future — one that strips them of their pre-October 6 status and prevents them from redeploying along the border to threaten our security,” Kuperwasser explained. “This should enable northern residents to safely return home.”

Three-Pronged Strategy

1. Targeting leadership: “We are striking Hezbollah’s leadership and operators, eliminating as many as possible. This effort has been highly effective.”
2. Securing the border: “We’ve launched extensive operations to clear Hezbollah’s positions in Lebanon’s south. We discovered tunnels filled with weapons and facilities, which we have neutralized. Moving forward, Hezbollah will not return to these areas— whether by force or through a diplomatic arrangement, but under Israeli oversight, not UNIFIL or the Lebanese Armed Forces.”
3. Cutting off arms supplies: “We are disrupting Hezbollah’s rearmament efforts, carrying out operations in Syria and along its border to block Iranian weapons transfers.”

Short-Term Goals

Kuperwasser emphasized progress in degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities on the border but acknowledged the main objective: enabling northern residents to return.

“The attacks they’d face now are significantly less severe than before October 8,” he noted. “That doesn’t mean there’s no risk, but there are threats in Haifa and Tel Aviv too. The danger posed by Hezbollah’s Radwan forces along the border has been greatly diminished.”

He stressed that resettlement hinges on a robust agreement ensuring the permanent withdrawal of terrorists and the safety of civilians.

A Lasting Cease-Fire?

“An agreement is on the table, but both sides still hope to make it more in line with their interests and for that reason, they're escalating their activity,” Kuperwasser said. “Once an agreement is in place, they’ll have strong incentives to honor it. Any deal must give Israel the right to respond swiftly to threats. If they violate it, we’ll ensure they pay the price.”

Shaking in His Scholz

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz can finally exhale. His main rival within the Social Democratic Party, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, has decided not to challenge him for leadership in the upcoming elections. While this is a relief for Scholz, it’s hardly comforting for SPD voters. Pistorius is Germany’s most popular politician, whereas Scholz is the least popular modern chancellor. Scholz will lead the Socialists in the fierce battle to stem rising right-wing momentum in Germany.

Bitcoin’s All-Time High

As of press time, Bitcoin was flirting with the $100,000 mark after a wild ride that saw both tears and cheers among investors. The cryptocurrency has soared 45% since Donald Trump’s election victory on November 5. Many are lamenting missed opportunities to buy in when prices were just a few dollars.

Gaetz Crasher

After former congressman Matt Gaetz withdrew from consideration to become the next US attorney general when it became clear his nomination faced resistance within the GOP, the position fell to former Florida attorney general Pam Bondi. For Trump, Bondi’s unwavering loyalty made her the ideal choice; she defended Trump during his first impeachment in 2019 and consistently supported him through his recent legal challenges.

As AG, Bondi faces the formidable task of defending Trump’s radical agenda in court — a job that will require both resilience and strong allegiance to the president’s directives.

Putin Counts the Days

Donald Trump promised to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but he won’t take office until January 20. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin seems to be relishing the waning moments of President Biden’s term.

The Russian leader has announced continued combat testing of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile, despite international outcry. With a range of 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers (1,860 to 3,415 miles), these missiles can strike anywhere in Europe or the western United States.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned this, declaring, “When someone uses other countries for terror and missile testing, it’s a clear international crime.”

With Trump’s inauguration still weeks away, Eastern Europe braces for a volatile December.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1038)

The post Calm After the Storm?  first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

Photos: AP Images; SHUTTERSTOCK/CHRISDORNEY; SHUTTERSTOCK/CRISTI DANGEORGE

Dangerous Games

The scenes in Amsterdam last Thursday night fit right into the worrying trend of burgeoning anti-Israel violence on Europe’s streets. Following an Ajax–Maccabi Tel Aviv soccer game, pro-Palestinian thugs ambushed Israeli fans in a series of hit-and-run assaults. Just a few hours after a Kristallnacht memorial to commemorate the 86th anniversary of this historic night of bloodshed, dozens of anti-Semites were out for Jewish blood. And there are indications that the violence was planned beforehand and carefully coordinated.

Rabbi Yanki Jacobs, a Chabad shaliach in Amsterdam who also serves as the student chaplain for universities nationwide, and a son of the current chief rabbi of the Netherlands, told Mishpacha that demonstrators had been trying to prevent the game from taking place at all, and wanted to protest outside the stadium, but were blocked from doing so by the Dutch authorities.

It was en route from the stadium back to the athletes’ accommodations that the attackers struck. Rabbi Jacobs adds that, as is common with soccer games, it’s obviously possible that the Maccabi fans had been somewhat provocative in their conduct.

“Hooligans getting into fights is not unusual,” he notes wryly.

Though the Israelis were protected by police, it was obviously insufficient to prevent what happened next. En route from the stadium back to the athletes’ accommodations, pro-Palestinian attackers raced round on e-scooters looking for Israelis. They stopped passersby, asked them if they were Israeli or if they spoke Hebrew, demanded to see their passports, and charged at them accordingly. Police had a hard time responding, as there were essentially multiple isolated hit-and-run incidents: The thugs would beat their victims and then flee on their scooters.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the attacks were discussed beforehand on social messaging apps, with users calling for a “Jodenjacht” — a “Jew hunt.” But even before that, the attackers had clearly scoped out where Israelis would be staying, and where they would be going. They were lying in wait at exit points from hotels and the stadium. When the assaults got underway, the attackers used hit-and-run tactics on scooters and sped from venue to venue before law enforcement could intervene.

Though baruch Hashem there were no serious injuries, social media had blown up with the horrific scenes, and Rabbi Jacobs spent the rest of the night assessing the extent of the damage, driving people to safety, and quelling false rumors of a far more tragic outcome. Local organizations such as Maccabi Netherlands set up a temporary safe house for the Israelis to get to, from where they would be securely conveyed to the airport and evacuated on Israeli planes.

Rabbi Jacobs isn’t remotely surprised by the alarming violence that erupted in a city that considers itself liberal and cosmopolitan. “This is a direct result of dehumanization and demonization of Israel and everything it stands for,” he says. “If you portray people as the epitome of wickedness, with no nuance, this is the obvious result.”

Indeed, this trend is being replicated across major European capitals. At a Paris soccer game a few days prior, a bloodstained “Free Palestine” banner was unfurled. London and Berlin are hotbeds of anti-Israel protest, and now Amsterdam joins this hall of infamy as another cultured metropolis playing host to pro-Palestinian violence.

Rabbi Jacobs relates a heartwarming story that offers an optimistic counter-narrative to this otherwise disturbing event. As dawn broke in the safe house, one of the stranded Israelis requested to don tefillin, but Rabbi Jacobs, who’d come straight from the city center after an all-nighter, had none with him.

Some volunteers (a couple hundred had turned out to help) went to fetch tefillin, and the father of one of the Israeli athletes, after davening with great emotion, thanking Hashem for his safety, was so moved by this display of unity and kindness that he pledged on the spot to donate ten pairs of tefillin to be distributed to young Jews in the Netherlands. While poisonous hatred crosses borders, so does Jewish hope and unity.

Kemi in Charge

Britain’s battered Conservative Party has a new leader, and she looks nothing like the stereotypical Tory. The first black female to lead any major UK party, Kemi Badenoch believes her skin color is no more significant than her hair color, and she loathes culture warriors. Her style is punchy and abrasive, and critics say she would cross the road to start a fight, a characterization she vigorously denies. Her forthrightness has also gotten her into trouble, but she argues voters want authenticity and honesty, not another 2-D vanilla politician like current PM Keir Starmer.

Badenoch is unashamedly conservative in principle but has yet to commit to specific policies; she says the priority now is for the party to rediscover its identity. The former software engineer sells herself as a system-fixer and problem-solver, skills that would be most welcome in tackling the state’s current dysfunction. Some in Labour, which has always been led by white men, are uneasy about the Conservatives being on their fourth female and second ethnic minority leader. And following seismic events across the Atlantic, Badenoch’s election as leader of a conservative party is yet another indication that the days of progressive dominance of the minority vote are very much over.

Bibi’s Man in Washington

Netanyahu’s pick for ambassador to Washington under Trump 2.0 is not exactly a career diplomat. American-born Yechiel Leiter immigrated to Israel as a bochur and studied in a Chevron kollel as a young avreich.

His 1994 book A Peace Plan to Resist warned of catastrophe if the Oslo Accords were signed, and he’s an outspoken advocate of expanding the Jewish presence in Yehudah and Shomron.

After his son Moshe Yedidya was killed in Gaza last year, he joined the Gevurah Forum, the total-victory-campaigning counter to the left-leaning Hostages and Missing Families Forum.

But Leiter is not just an eloquent activist; he’s a distinguished philosopher and academic. He is currently the director general of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs think tank, and served in various government departments, as well as chief of staff to Netanyahu. With this pick, Bibi has signaled his confidence that the incoming Trump administration will give him far more latitude on Israel's security needs than Biden ever did.

Scholz on the Ropes

German chancellor Olaf Scholz has become the next center-left leader staring certain defeat in the face. His coalition of fiscal conservatives, Greens, and progressives collapsed over disagreements with his finance minister, who insisted on spending restraint while others wanted increased welfare spending and economic stimulation. Inflation, anti-immigration sentiment, and stuttering economic growth plague Europe’s largest economy, which narrowly avoided recession and is projected for zero growth this year.

A snap election looks imminent, though Scholz has yet to officially commit to one. Current polls forecast a decisive victory for the center-right Christian Democratic Union, which has tacked rightwards on immigration while advocating strong support for Ukraine. Whoever takes over faces the prospect of punishing US tariffs on the auto industry, one of Germany’s most critical, and a severely weakened continent overall. Elected in late 2021, Scholz, like many of his global counterparts, is paying the price for post-Covid inflation and uncontrolled immigration.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1036)

The post Dangerous Games   first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

Donald Trump’s first term slew almost every sacred cow upon which postwar Europe was built — immigration, NATO, and free trade, which seemed like settled issues — were all up for debate post-2016. Now, on the eve of a potential Trump return, the continent has undergone profound changes, and is girding itself further for another showdown with the world’s most powerful democracy.

Immigration

The 2016 Brexit vote was the canary in the coal mine of anti-immigration anger, but it was Trump’s rhetoric and policies that really put immigration liberals on notice. With a more violent and autocratic Middle East, and Latin America ravaged by gang wars, the borders of Europe and the US have been overrun. Western leaders previously sheltered behind postwar humanitarian treaties, but voters have had enough and care little for the 1949 Geneva Convention in 2024.

In Germany, Italy, and Poland, anti-immigration policies are being implemented. France’s Emmanuel Macron is clashing with the border hawks in his new government. In Hungary, the Netherlands, and Austria, the populist right is in power. With the border one of the Democrats’ key weaknesses, European leaders know there’s little room for error on this emotive issue.

NATO

It was a very convenient system, until Trump came along and started asking awkward questions. For decades, European leaders pinched pennies on defense, and the US picked up the tab. The former businessman and dealmaker was outraged at this perceived unfairness, and threatened to withdraw from the alliance if Europeans failed to stump up the cash. Fast-forward a few years, and NATO members have done just that; defense spending has risen from 1.47% percent in 2014 to the 2 percent target in 2024.

NATO’s support for Ukraine is another potential weak spot, where US support is not guaranteed, and NATO officials have told CNN they’re preparing for the US to take a lesser role in the alliance under a Trump presidency.

Free Trade

In 2016, Trump capitalized on the anger of post-industrial America, which globalization had hollowed out, and vowed to impose tariffs on the foreign imports flooding the US. Brussels tried de-escalating by only partially retaliating to tariffs in 2018, but Trump, hardly the conciliatory type, only doubled down, threatening tariffs on EU car exports. Brussels’ cadre of smug globalists were shocked at how readily Trump upended global supply chains and traditional alliances. This time, the EU are taking no chances and have prepared a raft of punishing retaliatory tariffs.

“The Commission has prepared substantial retaliation so that we push Trump for a deal in the first round,” one diplomat told Politico, arguing that, with the German auto industry in Trump’s sights this time round, the alternative would be a damaging tit-for-tat vortex that could cripple multiple EU economies.

Payday at Microsoft

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella certainly broke the stereotype of the greedy tech exec when he asked his company board to reduce his pay on account of cybersecurity flaws and job cuts at Microsoft this year. Luckily for Nadella, the board refused his request and paid him $79.1 million, citing 16 percent revenue growth in the year to June 2024.

Most of the money is made up of stock options, with only $5.2million in cash, which the board’s compensation committee had reduced by half. Nadella’s 63 percent rise in year-in-year pay puts his earnings above both Apple boss Tim Cook ($63.2million) and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang ($34.2million), though it pales in comparison to Elon Musk’s potential pay packet of $56 billion, which is linked to Tesla’s share price. By every metric, it’s tech that’s proving to be the moneymaker of the future.

Labour’s Not Working

The UK’s newly reelected Labour Party had always planned for tough decisions to be made in their first weeks, when political capital is at its height, with the sweeties coming later, closer to the next election. So, armed with the (partially true) refrain that everything was their Conservative predecessors’ fault, they’ve embarked on a voyage for the truly politically courageous: releasing prisoners early to reduce overcrowding, removing winter fuel payments from most pensioners, and a tax raid of circa £40 billion, having promised during the election not to raise taxes on working people.

But all has not gone to plan. Operations at the center of government were mismanaged, leading PM Starmer to sack his chief of staff less than 100 days in, and bungled communications have contributed to Labour’s double-digit poll lead all but evaporating.

A series of questions over Starmer’s acceptance of costly freebies were allowed to run for weeks with no credible attempt to shut down the story. Newly released convicts were driven away from prison in supercars, and some are already behind bars again for re-offending. Outraged businesses facing tax hikes are crying foul over Labour’s absurd definition of “working people” — i.e., those who won’t see their taxes increase (“earning less than £100,000 and whose primary income is from employment rather than assets”).

It turns out governing is difficult, and Labour has been caught woefully unprepared.

Balancing Act

Few Americans have heard of Lina Khan, but they’ve definitely heard of the companies clamoring for her removal. The head of the Federal Trade Commission is an aggressive proponent of breaking up Big Tech firms like Google and Meta, and some of Kamala Harris’s wealthiest backers, like LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, and billionaire tech investor Mark Cuban, want her out.

But Khan’s been embraced by progressive candidates, including some fighting in swing states like Wisconsin. Socialist congresswoman AOC has threatened “an out-and-out brawl” were Harris to replace Khan after the election. Harris herself has yet to appear with Khan or openly endorse her antitrust agenda; the Democratic nominee is caught between establishment donors and progressive populists.

For now, Harris’s lips are sealed, but progressives are skeptical that there’s a pro-monopoly caucus among the moderate Republicans she’s trying to woo, and that it will be Little Tech champion and Republican VP nominee JD Vance who’s in step with the public on this.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1034)

The post Battle Plans     first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

When Angela Merkel threw open Germany’s borders to millions of Middle Eastern migrants in 2015, the public, who hadn’t been asked, were uneasy about such an influx from countries with cultures completely alien to Western democracies. Almost a decade on, they’re feeling betrayed, ignored, and patronized on immigration, and they’ve made their feelings clear at the ballot box. In East German state elections on September 1, extremist anti-immigration parties scooped up close to half of all votes.

Amid the subsequent hand-wringing and high-horse mounting by an aghast political class, an appeal not to ignore these seismic results emerged from a most unlikely source. Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt, head of Conference of European Rabbis (CER) and a figure closely associated with Europe’s centrist establishment, issued a statement warning that the results represented real concerns expressed by voters that were being ignored by mainstream parties.

“If the political center will continue to ignore those issues, those political parties will disappear and the threatening, extreme ones will only grow stronger,” his statement said.

Indeed, the results were grim for Olaf Scholz’s ruling center-left coalition of Social Democrats, Free Democrats, and Greens. All three parties scraped the single digits, while the hard-right AfD finished first in Thuringia and missed victory in Saxony by 1.3%. The far-left BSW, an unorthodox fusion of left-wing economics and cultural conservatism founded only months ago, scored in the double digits.

Speaking to Mishpacha, Rabbi Goldschmidt doubles down on his concerns that the political center has ignored immigration for too long, and events conspired to prove his point: Hours before the interview, an armed Austrian-born Islamist attempted to attack the Israeli consulate on the 52nd anniversary of the Munich Olympics massacre, less than 100 meters from the CER main office.

On the other side of the political spectrum, Rabbi Goldschmidt is deeply worried about the practical implications of the AfD’s rise: “They say, ‘The last 80 years we’ve been apologizing for the Holocaust. Enough, we’ve paid and said enough.’ ”

He believes this could lead to less support for the Jewish community — and for Israel, whose strongest EU ally is Germany. Rabbi Goldschmidt offers two reasons why centrist politicians have been so reluctant to respond to voters’ concerns on immigration.

“Until now, they thought danger only comes from the right,” he says. “It comes now from Islamic radicalism even more than from the extreme right. And they’ve been very liberal in accepting everyone without checks. The world has changed. People are worried about their security — they don’t recognize Europe anymore. To stay relevant to voters, they have to start giving solutions.”

These results are far from anomalous. They follow 4 million votes in July for border hawks Reform UK, and a near-victory in June by Marine Le Pen in France. Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni have also reaped political dividends from their anti-immigration stances.

Rabbi Goldschmidt acknowledges that the tide is beginning to turn in the public discourse in recognition of voter sentiments. “Today, there are strong reactions in Germany and other countries to immigration, as well as to imams preaching radicalism.” He tempers this, however, with a note of caution: “The response is getting stronger, but we’re not there yet.”

And Then There Were Five

Five contenders remain in the race to become leader of an unprecedentedly diminished UK Conservative Party. Former home secretary Priti Patel was knocked out in the first parliamentary stage, having garnered the fewest votes from MPs. In rank order, here are the survivors:

• Robert Jenrick, former minister and immigration hawk who’s suggested concrete policies to address the party’s malaise, and is trying to shake his old moniker “Robert Generic” to prove he’s anything but.
• Kemi Badenoch, former Business Secretary and a strong cultural conservative with a penchant for confrontation (“the kind of person who would take nuclear weapons to a pillow fight,” as one wag put it), says she can find long-term solutions for complex problems.
• James Cleverly, former Home Secretary and a popular figure, is offering statesmanlike experience and unity.
• Tom Tugendhat, former Security Minister and perceived centrist, has dangled some quite right-wing policies in a bid to win the decidedly right-of-right-of-center party membership. Some polls show he’s the most popular with the public.
• Bringing up the rear is Mel Stride, former Work and Pensions Secretary, widely expected to drop out at the first stage, and has the lowest name recognition.

There’s still almost two months to go before a winner is picked, so this race is still wide open.

Barnier’s Back

To the horror of Brexiteers, Michael Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, who made no attempt to disguise his disdain for the Eurosceptics during the Brexit negotiations, is back at the top of French politics, after French president Emmanuel Macron tapped him for prime minister.

But old grievances aside, Barnier’s revival hardly signals an end to the chaos in French politics that has paralyzed the government for two months. The conservative Barnier was appointed with the approval of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, and with the far-left NFP coalition vowing to back no-confidence motions that could topple the government, Barnier relies on the right to prop up him up.

Figures in Macron’s own camp have accused the embattled president of cozying up to the right. Remember, Macron called the elections for the express purpose of shutting out the far right. Talk about unintended consequences.

US Office Space Glut Sparks Fears

One of the last Covid-era holdouts has been the shift to remote working. Four years on, banks and investors have begun to accept that commercial property may never return to pre-pandemic values. A bipartisan effort is underway to make it easier to convert office blocks into residential housing, but for some buildings, that’s too little, too late.

Almost $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans come due this year, and high interest rates mean mortgage holders face a far more expensive refinancing. Worryingly for lawmakers, 70% of commercial mortgages are held by smaller and regional banks, which lack the capital and reserves of the big players to protect themselves from the shock of plummeting property prices.

Scott Rechler, one of New York’s largest commercial landlords, has admitted that more loan extensions will not solve the underlying problem; the demand for office space has simply plunged. “At some point or other, the day of reckoning needs to come. I think it’s here.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1028)

The post A Warning on Germany’s Far Right    first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

Hypocrisy Alert

Every time the late Conservative UK administration was engulfed in scandal (which was fairly often), Labour ministers toured the airwaves, deploring the corruption at the heart of government, and piously promising that they would restore ethics and integrity when they were elected.

But within weeks, new PM Keir Starmer has been accused of cronyism, appointing multiple political figures — including one who donated £20,000 to Chancellor Rachel Reeves — to key positions in the civil service, which is constitutionally required to be impartial and apolitical. Topping it all was the revelation that Starmer’s largest personal donor, TV tycoon Waheed Ali, had been given an all-areas access pass to 10 Downing Street, highly unusual for anyone outside government. Number 10 says the pass was only temporary, and Ali no longer holds it.

Speaking to reporters after a much-trailed speech about his commitment to service and renewal, among other platitudes, Starmer defended himself by blaming the Conservatives for “dragging the country down.” A rather novel defense for hypocrisy, wouldn’t you say?

Robots vs. Reporters

Google’s dominance threatens many industries. Particularly badly affected is local journalism, which has seen an evaporation of advertising revenue as users migrate online. Local newsrooms complain that Google posts their content for free, and then profits from the ad dollars generated by readers.

To try to counter this trend, the state of California has brokered a $250 million deal with Google, under which the search engine behemoth will funnel $110 million to support local newsrooms, and the state will pay $70 million. It’s similar to a law passed in Canada requiring sites like Google and Meta to pay local news sites for the right to public their content. But California made a deal with Google, not a law. It includes an additional $70 million earmarked for private investment into the development of artificial intelligence, which journalists fear will ultimately render their jobs obsolete.

State assemblywoman Buffy Wicks, the Democrat who led negotiations, defended the deal, pointing to Canada, where a year on from the Online News Act — passed in the face of huge opposition from the tech companies — Google et al have yet to pay a single cent to local news sites. She insisted the AI funding was essential to getting the deal through, but fellow Democrats are outraged that Google once again used its enormous leverage to get the better of legislators. In this David versus Goliath battle, Goliath looks like the victor.

⅓

The proportion of total income tax paid by Israel’s tech sector from 2016 to 2021. Hardly surprising, given that on average, a tech worker pays more than six times the income tax an average worker pays in the economy as a whole. Tech remains one of Israel’s biggest success stories, and with the sector looking very much like the future of the global economy, it doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere.

It’s two months since France’s parliamentary elections gave the left the most seats in the National Assembly — although not a majority — and the country remains politically deadlocked because Emmanuel Macron has yet to approve a prime minister. The far-left NFP coalition is angry at his most recent rejection of the candidate they proposed — Lucie Castets, a Paris civil servant, whom Macron argues would be toppled within days. He insists “no one won the election” because no party got near a majority, though the NFP would obviously beg to differ.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed, the most extreme party in the NFP coalition, was furious at this “unacceptable anti-democratic coup” and called for Macron to be impeached. Mélenchon called for a mass demonstration on September 7, a move supported by his coalition partners. The embattled president urged the three more moderate parties in the NFP to work with other parties to try to come to an agreement, but they’ve refused.

Predictably, the right-wing alliance has vowed to vote down any candidate from the left, and given that his sole motive for calling the election was to shut them down, Macron cannot look to them for support. However the stalemate ends, it’s sure to involve a large helping of humble pie for the suave ex-banker.

Who’s Up

Far-right German party AfD. By the time you read this, the results of elections in two East German states will be known, but as we go to press, the AfD are polling ahead in one region, and neck-in-neck with the conservative CDU in the other. They’re unlikely to gain actual power, as other parties have ruled out cooperating with the AfD to form a majority, but their victory will be another warning to the German establishment on immigration.

Who’s Down

Social media channel Telegram boss Pavel Durov, who was arrested in France over allegations that his platform facilitated a range of illegal activities. He’s the first tech boss to be arrested for his platform’s activities. His detention prompted criticism from Elon Musk, who’s defended extremism on social media as free speech. In a more dangerous and divided world, the debate over liberty and public safety looks like it’s here to stay.

Ex-Policy Guru for Governor?

Steve Hilton is an exotic creature. The policy guru and tech entrepreneur, who served as director of strategy for former British prime minister David Cameron in Downing Street, was famous for walking around barefoot and living without a cell phone for over a decade. (In March, he revealed he had one — albeit a flip phone — which he uses for his frequent travels, including as a guest and presenter on Fox News.)

Hilton, who now runs a public policy think tank in California, is reportedly mulling a Republican bid for governor of the Golden State in 2026 (he’s been a resident there since 2012).

State GOP figures are making positive noises about Hilton, who focuses on policy prescriptions as the cure for California’s ills. Billionaire tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya expressed his admiration for Hilton, and his hopes that the wonkish maverick might be able to reverse the exodus of businesses, soaring homelessness, and rampant crime that has turned the Golden State into a national basket case.

If Trump wins in 2024, his presidency will likely crowd out little-known candidates like Hilton, but if the Democrats return to the White House, Californian voters, already signaling discontent with the state’s hyper-progressive direction, may look favorably on an insurgent.

It’s a long shot, though. California hasn’t had a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s narrow victory in 2003.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1027)

The post Hypocrisy Alert first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.

Britain Burns

The honeymoon for the UK’s new government came to a juddering halt after less than a month, when a 17-year-old male went on a stabbing spree at a vacation club for young girls in the North West town of Southport, killing three and injuring several others. Due to his status as a minor, the killer’s identity was not immediately disclosed, and social media was soon ablaze with rumors that he was a Muslim immigrant. Within hours, protestors had gathered outside mosques and Muslim-owned businesses, clashing with police, and shouting anti-Muslim and anti-immigration slogans.

In the interest of public safety, the judge on the case revealed that the perpetrator was a second-generation Rwandan Christian, born and bred in the UK, but this did nothing to quell the riots. Over the next few days, they spread, coming to a head two weekends ago.

Across the country, protestors vandalized Muslim businesses and institutions and shouted that the UK was being taken over by Islamists. In South Yorkshire, they surrounded a hotel housing asylum seekers, smashed windows, and tried to set it on fire. In the North East, hooligans set up a checkpoint, stopping every taxi and only allowing it to pass if the driver was white and English. Police officers were injured, and hundreds were arrested. Pro-Muslim and pro-immigration counter-protests sprang up, with violent clashes between the two.

The riots drew widespread condemnation. Prime Minister Keir Starmer denounced it as “far-right thuggery” and vowed to deploy extra police, set up 24-hour courts, and clear space in Britain’s already overcrowded prisons for the perpetrators. The Conservatives, who have been largely irrelevant and quiet since their election drubbing, also condemned the riots. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, who had initially speculated whether the attack was terror-related, hastily clarified that he did not condone criminal behavior or violence.

But Labour’s swift and unequivocal crackdown on far-right protests has led to some uncomfortable questions as to why the same level of enforcement was not seen for far-left protests like the weekly pro-Gaza marches in central London, where police have also been attacked, and Jews have been terrorized away from the area. When one journalist asked Metropolitan Police Chief Mark Rowley if there was “two-tier policing” in Britain, Rowley angrily knocked his microphone to the floor.

Starmer’s promise to ensure the Muslim community felt safe prompted a tweet from Elon Musk, who wondered aloud whether it shouldn’t be “ensuring all communities feel safe.” Cue a rather entertaining X-spat between the staid Starmer and mercurial Musk, who called the PM “two-tier Keir.”

There’s also unease in some circles with the tone of the government’s response, which doesn’t acknowledge any concerns felt by working-class communities experiencing high levels of immigration, and ethnic tensions stemming from Muslim communities. While there’s obviously no excuse for violence, the areas seeing the worst of the unrest are mostly lower-income white, with a significant proportion of Muslim residents, such as Rotherham and Hull in Yorkshire and Bolton in Greater Manchester. Liverpool, one of the UK’s most deprived cities, and Birmingham, the city with the highest Muslim population, also saw fierce clashes.

The tide seemed to turn last week, when thousands of anti-racism protestors outnumbered the smattering of far-right rivals. But the government has looked weak and reactive, and Starmer’s virtuous solemnity and technocratic response has highlighted his lack of political nous in a delicate and fast-changing situation. It’s another warning shot across the bow of “multiculturalism.” British social cohesion has never looked so fragile.

Incarcerated in Ireland

Ireland is not a friendly place for Jews at the best of times; there’s been growing anti-Israel sentiment since October 7, and in May, the country formally recognized a Palestinian state. But the arrest of London mohel Yoni Abrahams is a new low, and has provoked outrage in the Jewish community. Abrahams has been a qualified and insured mohel for 13 years, but was arrested because Irish law prohibits circumcision by someone who doesn’t have Irish credentials. He was taken into custody when preparing to circumcise two non-Jewish children.

Abrahams could face up to five years’ imprisonment and a fine of up to £130,000 ($166,000). He was denied bail; the judge claimed his large family and home in London made him a flight risk. British and Irish Jewish organizations are working on the case. Ireland’s milah laws are rarely enforced, and the zealous clampdown on a Jewish rabbi, rather than on the Muslim community, where unlicensed circumcisions are thought to be far more frequent, is lamentable, if not surprising.

Despot on the Run

Dictators invariably come to sticky ends, as Sheikh Hasina discovered on Monday, August 5. The daughter of former Bangladeshi president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led the East Asian nation to independence in 1972, was prime minister for 15 years until protests toppled her and sent her fleeing to India. When she took power in 2009, Hasina was initially hailed as a poster-child of post-independence democracy, but became increasingly autocratic during her reign. Elections in 2014 and 2024 were boycotted by the opposition over allegations that they were neither free nor fair.

The protests were sparked by students demanding the abolition of job quotas reserved for relatives of supporters of independence, which date back 50 years. Students didn’t want to work in Bangladesh’s $40 billion garment industry, and faced higher levels of unemployment than less-educated Bangladeshis.

Hasina responded by cutting off the Internet and imposing curfews, but the harsh crackdown only galvanized her critics. As with many other coups, the tide turned when security forces stopped defending the government. The head of the military made repeated visits to the prime ministerial palace, warning Hasina that her time was up and her life was in danger. Finally, last Monday, she got the memo and fled by military helicopter to India with her sister, hours before jubilant protestors stormed the now-empty palace.

Economist Muhammad Yunus, 84, has been appointed interim leader, and newly liberated Bangladeshis hope his pioneering work on finance that won him the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize will help the country out of poverty.

Monopoly or Market Leader?

Google’s ubiquity has long been the bane of smaller rivals, traditional advertisers, and regulators. The tech giant, which has 90 percent of the online search market, argues its success is because it’s simply the best product out there. Last week, a district court judge in Washington, D.C., disagreed, citing Google’s partnerships with Apple, Samsung, Verizon, and other carriers to be the default search engine on their devices.

Judge Amit Mehta also ruled that Google monopolized the market for ads displayed next to its search results, but did not say Google had done so for all advertising; they have competition from upstarts like… Amazon, who sell ads for search results on their own website. So lawmakers may have scored a legal victory, but the tech scene is still very much the playground of the big boys.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1024)

The post Britain Burns     first appeared on Mishpacha Magazine.